Senior Iranian military commanders have recently renewed promises to target Israel amid speculation over the perceived delay in Iran’s response.
Hossein Salami, IRGC Commander-in-Chief, has reiterated (September 8) Iran’s pledge to retaliate following the July 31 killing of Haniyeh in Tehran. He stated, “The nightmare of Iran’s revenge shakes them day and night. They cannot continue their political existence like this, and we see signs of their political end… Today, the enemy is confused. Thousands rise every night in the occupied territories against their government, and there is no way out for the Zionists…The enemy is waiting for revenge every moment; eventually, they will taste its bitter taste. When? Where? And how? This riddle will be solved one day, but we will act differently… The enemies should not think they can hit and run. They will be struck and will not be able to escape. They will learn great lessons not to play with the lion’s tail.”
Brig Gen Mohsen Chizari, deputy operations commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF), said (September 4) that Iran’s reaction to the “martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh” will be different and should not be detailed. As the Supreme Leader has stated, we consider it our duty to avenge Haniyeh’s assassination, who was martyred within Iran’s territory, and it will undoubtedly be carried out.
He added that the quality of Iran’s response will depend on the conditions that facilitate the realization of our objectives concerning the Zionists’ crime. Iran would wait for the right moment to launch a “crushing response.” He emphasized that “as long as these conditions do not exist, our patience and self-restraint continue… Until the goals of the Islamic Republic of Iran are achieved at the right time and with the necessary surprise.” Chizari noted that once the results of “Operation Arbaeen” are clear, Hezbollah will determine whether its intended goals have been achieved; thus, the operation may continue.
Brig Gen Ali Abdollahi, the deputy chief of staff of Iran’s armed forces for coordination, also deemed (September 4) Iran’s response to the crimes of the martyrdom of Ismail Haniyeh as “definite and inevitable” and emphasized: “The Zionist regime must take its dream of no response from Iran to its grave, and know that the response is definite and inevitable, The time of the response, however, will be determined by the Leader and the country’s senior commanders…the Islamic Republic has proven its will to deploy all its capacities towards responding to enemies’ violation of its soil and waters,” He noted that while many countries possess a range of equipment and weapons, the willingness to use them is a separate issue, adding, “and the enemy is aware that Iran has the resolve to utilize them.”
Iran has refrained from directly responding to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh so far, reflecting a strategic calculus driven by broader regional priorities, deep-seated concerns about the internal implications of direct confrontation with Israel, and the deployment of massive American force in the region.
Iran is well aware of Israel’s capability to conduct precise, surgical strikes against its air defense systems and other strategic infrastructure assets, a reality underscored by Israeli responses to Iranian missiles and drone attacks in April. It appears that the substantial presence of American military forces in the region, deployed in preparation for a potential Iranian response against Israel, acts as a deterrent for Tehran.
The memory of the targeted attack looms large in Iranian strategic thinking, heightening fears that a direct and forceful retaliation could destabilize the regime to the point of threatening its survival. Thus, Iran’s current posture reflects a cautious balance, aiming to safeguard its interests and maintain the stability of its regime while continuing to lead the axis of Resistance.
Iran Dossier Iran has refrained from directly responding to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh so far, reflecting a strategic calculus
