In the wake of the recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Iran’s “severe retaliation” threats, as well as the ongoing war in Gaza, internal debate over its nuclear policy is intensifying. Reports of Iran’s progress in nuclear weaponization, combined with growing tensions in the region, have led some Iranian officials and lawmakers to call for a reassessment of the country’s nuclear doctrine, potentially paving the way for the development of nuclear weapons. U.S. intelligence agencies have also raised alarms, warning that Iran is better positioned than ever to produce a nuclear device if it chooses to do so.
While Tehran publically maintains its commitment to peaceful nuclear activities, recent remarks insinuated the likelihood of intense internal debate regarding revising its nuclear doctrine in response to perceived growing external and internal threats.
U.S. intelligence agencies have released a new assessment, delivered to Congress by the DNI, cautioning that Iran has “undertaken activities that better position it to produce a nuclear device, if it chooses to do so.” Notably, the report omitted a long-standing assertion from U.S. intelligence that Iran “isn’t currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device.”
Mohammadreza Sabbaghian Bafghi, the representative from Mehriz (Yazd Province) , declared (Aug. 12) in a parliamentary session: ” “In my opinion, the Islamic Republic’s retaliatory action against the killing of Palestinians and the situation in Gaza, especially the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, should be to develop a (nuclear) weapon that Israel and oppressive countries possess…today we all witness the crushing of Gaza, and tomorrow it will be the turn of other free nations…We Ask the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) to Evaluate the New Situation and, if needed, Recommend Action to the Supreme Leader!”
Former member of the Iranian parliament (Majlis) Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani stated in an interview with Diplomacy.ir on May 21, outstandingly one day after the announcement of the helicopter crash that killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, that Iran needs to readjust its nuclear policy and acquire nuclear weapons.
Bakhshayesh Ardestani has served as a member of the Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Commission and is known for his ultra-hardline views, particularly regarding Iran’s national defense and nuclear policies. Ardastani has been a vocal advocate for the development of nuclear weapons as a means of securing Iran’s strategic interests, particularly in response to external threats.
He believes that developing a nuclear weapon is necessary to create a balance of terror (“mowazane vahshat” موازنه وحشت ) against Israel, which he sees as a strategic player in undermining Iran’s security through acts such as the assassination of key figures like Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Ardastani suggests that Iran’s nuclear capability would serve as a strategic deterrent, preventing further aggression from Israel and its allies. He views nuclear weapons as essential for maintaining a credible threat that could discourage hostile actions against Iran. He added that Ardastani argues that a nuclear weapon would strengthen Iran’s position in international negotiations, making it a more formidable player on the global stage.
Ardastani also criticizes the current state of Iran’s nuclear program, noting that despite significant investment and the associated costs, it has not been able to provide even basic electricity, let alone strategic advantages. In this regard, Ardastani argues that Iran has endured unprecedented levels of sanctions and economic hardship due to its nuclear activities. He questions the logic of enduring such hardships without reaping significant benefits like nuclear energy or a nuclear deterrent.
On May 8, presented Rouydad 24 outlet several reasons why he believes Iran has already acquired nuclear weapons but chooses not to declare them: “It seems that Iran has acquired nuclear weapons, enabling it to confidently target Israel and previously launch (retaliatory) attacks on the US base in Ain al-Assad (Iraq) “. Iran’s actions align with a policy of possessing nuclear weapons while publicly adhering to the framework of the JCPOA. Iran’s behavior towards the US and Israel suggests nuclear capability, even though it has not officially declared it. Bakhshayesh questions whether Iran needs to assert its possession of nuclear weapons, given the international context and potential consequences, adding that The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) may not have direct evidence of Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons but relies on estimations of Iran’s progress.
Bakhshayesh underscores Iran’s strategic imperative for nuclear armament in response to perceived threats from the US and Israel. Iran’s conduct hints at a gradual embrace of its nuclear capability by the global community. He anticipates eventual recognition of Iran’s nuclear status, foreseeing shifts in international dynamics, possibly including backing from Russia and China. The author concludes that the international community will ultimately acknowledge and accommodate Iran’s nuclear status despite potential heightened sanctions. Bakhshayesh highlights Iran’s increased regional and global appeal following the Gaza conflict, indicating a bolstering of its perceived influence.
On April 18, Brigadier General Ahmad Haq Talab, Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) responsible for the security of Iran’s nuclear facilities, stressed that “If Israel persists in threatening Iran’s nuclear sites, it may prompt Iran to reassess its nuclear doctrine and policies. It is conceivable that Iran would review its nuclear policy and doctrine, potentially breaching prior commitments and limitations.” He further stated that if Israel attempts any hostile action against Iran’s nuclear facilities, there will be a swift and definite response targeting Israel’s nuclear sites and other strategic infrastructure locations, adding that Iran possesses comprehensive intelligence on such targets and has prepared a plan to launch powerful missiles to destroy them.
In an editorial for Arman-e Emrooz titled “Behind the Scenes of a Threat,” Alireza Taqavi Nia analyzed the implications of Major General Ahmad Haqtalab’s statement on Iran’s potential shift in nuclear policy. The editorial emphasized that this unprecedented comment by a high-ranking IRGC official indicates a significant change in Iran’s stance on its nuclear program.
On May 8, Kamal Kharrazi, a former foreign minister and a current adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, said in an interview with Al Jazeera TV that Iran would have to amend its nuclear doctrine if Israel threatened its existence “We have no decision to produce a nuclear bomb, but if the existence of Iran is threatened, we will have to change our nuclear doctrine,” He said Iran’s “level of deterrence will be different if the Zionist regime dares to damage Iran’s nuclear facilities”, adding that Iranian military officials had already said that it was possible to revise Iran’s nuclear doctrine and “deviate from the previously declared considerations.”
In the wake of global discussions surrounding the statements by several Iranian officials about reconsidering Iran’s nuclear doctrine, a Foreign Ministry spokesperson stressed (May 15) that Tehran’s nuclear doctrine “has not changed,” referring to an (alleged) 2003 fatwa (religious edict) by Khamenei banning weapons of mass destruction.
Mahmoud Aghamiri, president of Tehran’s Beheshti University, suggested in a televised interview (April 8) that the religious decree by the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which currently deems the creation of an atomic bomb as “forbidden,” could potentially “change” in the future. He emphasized that, given Iran’s technological capabilities, constructing an atomic bomb would be easier than refraining from doing so.
In the interview, Aghamiri explained, “The discussion is not about building an atomic bomb. When your capability is high, this itself is power. The Supreme Leader has said that going in this direction is forbidden. Of course, this is what we think now. He is a mujtahid (a highly knowledgeable Islamic scholar qualified to interpret and derive legal rulings from the foundational sources of Islamic law), and tomorrow he may change his opinion.”
In Iran, the internal debate over the nuclear issue seems to be ongoing, while reports in the West indicate progress in Iran’s weaponization component of the nuclear program. The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah’s Chief of Staff in Beirut has led Iran to threaten a “firm response,” but at the same time, heightened fears in Tehran of a possible Israeli counterstrike, which could have far-reaching implications for Iran’s internal situation and the regime’s survival.
Since the missile strikes and drone swarms against Israel in April, the strategic environment around Iran has changed despite its successes in activating the Axis of Resistance against Israel. This shift requires Iran to make adjustments, likely including the future of its nuclear program. The U.S. presidential election, particularly the possibility of Trump’s return, as well as the ongoing war in Gaza—with its extensions in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq by the Resistance Camp—are also influencing decision-makers in Tehran as they assess the situation.
In this context, the United States continues to court Iran, even seeking to involve it behind the scenes in efforts to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza in exchange for refraining from retaliating against Israel for the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran. According to an Iranian source quoted by Reuters, only a ceasefire agreement in Gaza would prevent a direct Iranian response against Israel. The source warned that if the talks fail or if they sense that Israel is dragging its feet, Iran and the Axis of Resistance forces would attack Israel.
Iran Dossier Internal debate in Iran over its nuclear policy is intensifying