Forecast
The conference in Palermo won’t yield immediate results and the violence in the South will persist. ISIS remains active in the Sirte Bassin but the LNA is improving its capabilities.
Sarraj and his allied militias are making efforts to keep the truce in Tripoli intact and it seems that for the moment they are successful. Italy is meddling a lot in Libya and would like to have Russia and Haftar at the Palermo conference in November. Russia and Haftar’s moves seem to be coordinated. No matter who will finally attend the conference, immediate substantial results can be expected.
The violence by Chadian and Sudanese gangs in the South will persist. Only a strong unified army can put end it but for the moment the prospects for creating a solid united military force are very low.
Social protest at Sharara oilfield could escalate and lead to another halt in production. This notwithstanding, international attention on Libya will not subside — quite the opposite: it will grow because the more oil output increases the more interest various energy companies have in Libya, as was apparent in the oil and gas conference in Benghazi where the NOC chairman tried to mend fences with the parallel eastern establishments in an attempt to reach out to the LNA and its allied administration in the east.
In this context, the foiling of the ISIS VBIED attack by the LNA in Harawa is particularly important. The vehicle was prepared by ISIS but the LNA managed to conduct an operation based on the information extracted from a captured terrorist.
ISIS retains its presence in the area but the LNA’s capabilities are improving, and ISIS is not able to launch ongoing, large-scale attacks.
Get a sample of this report here:
Photo on the cover: Simona Flamigni / Shutterstock.com
