Psychological Warfare or Strategic Dilemma: Iran’s Promised Severe Retaliation

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The prolonged interval between the assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran (July 31, 2024) and the promised severe retaliation by Iran reflects, among other things, the dilemma Iran faces regarding the nature of the response in terms of its internal and external implications. As time passes, Iran becomes increasingly embarrassed in front of the Axis of Resistance it leads. Iran attempts to portray the “fear and hysteria” experienced by Israeli citizens as part of the “severe response,” extensively quoting Israeli politicians and media on the difficult situation during the waiting period and the economic damages caused to Israel. For instance, Yair Lapid, Head of the opposition, was quoted on “Kayhan’s” front page as warning that an “economic collapse in Israel could weaken Israel’s ability to secure itself and counter Iran.”

This situation highlights the role of psychological warfare, a tactic that Iran has increasingly relied on in its struggle against Israel and the West. By emphasizing the psychological impact on Israel and the disruption within Israeli society, Iran seeks to claim a form of victory without engaging in direct military action. This approach aligns with the broader strategy articulated by figures like Jafar Bolouri (see below), who emphasized in “Kayhan” the importance of psychological warfare in weakening Israel and disrupting enemy calculations.

In any case, it appears that the lack of an Iranian response is due, in part, to internal disagreements within Iran about the appropriate reaction. The ongoing war in Gaza, the expected Israeli response, and its implications for the stability of the regime in Iran, as well as the positioning of U.S. forces, are all factors under consideration in Tehran. As Iran navigates these complexities, it continues to leverage psychological warfare to maintain pressure on Israel and bolster its position within the Resistance Axis.

Jaafar Bolouri’s Editorial in “Kayhan” headlined “Revenge with Media Attachment” serves to reinforce the message delivered by Iran’s Supreme Leader in his recent speech, where he stated that Iran’s adversaries often exaggerate their power as a primary tactic in their psychological warfare. Bolouri highlights the crucial role of psychological warfare in weakening Israel, arguing that alongside any “military conflict,” a “soft war” and “psychological war” are launched to disrupt the enemy’s calculations and create societal discord. He stresses that media play a fundamental role in shaping public opinion and maintaining social cohesion.

Khamenei: Standing Firm Brings Divine Victory—Retreat Invites Divine Wrath

In his address to the organizers of the National Congress in honor of the martyrs of Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, emphasized the importance of understanding the true capabilities of the Iranian people and avoiding exaggeration of the enemy’s power. He pointed out that Iran’s adversaries try to use psychological warfare to instill fear and cause the Iranian nation to retreat in various arenas.

Khamenei also noted that the great leader of the revolution, Imam Khomeini, succeeded in removing fear from the hearts of the Iranian people and strengthening their self-confidence, enabling them to realize that their enemies were not as powerful as they claimed. He stated that the purpose of psychological warfare in the military arena is to create fear and cause retreat, “but such a retreat, whether in the military or other fields, would invite divine wrath.”

By retreating, especially when one should stand firm (whether in military, political, economic, or moral terms), individuals or a nation are essentially “inviting” or causing divine punishment to befall them. This punishment is viewed as divine retribution or wrath for failing to uphold certain principles or yielding to adversaries’ demands.

Khamenei implies that proper conduct and faithfulness in the face of ongoing external pressures have helped Iran achieve heavenly victories through “divine intervention,” as seen in Lebanon and Gaza, and in resisting sanctions while advancing its nuclear program. Khamenei suggests that Iran’s unswerving stance against Israel and the West, whether directly or through the Axis of Resistance it leads, has brought about these “divine” successes. This resilience is portrayed as a moral duty and a strategy inviting divine intervention and ensuring continued victories against its adversaries.

Psychological warfare is a double-edged sword.

Bolouri warns that Israel and its allies are actively engaged in psychological operations to undermine Iran’s resolve for retaliation following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. He calls for a strong media strategy to counteract these efforts, emphasizing the importance of being the “first narrator” to control the narrative and prevent the enemy from distorting the truth.

Bolouri’s article delves deeply into the psychological warfare that Iran is conducting against Israel, presenting it as a crucial element in the broader conflict between the two nations. Bolouri underscores that this psychological warfare is not a secondary or isolated tactic but a strategic component parallel to physical military confrontations.

Bolouri also discusses the tactics used to undermine Israeli morale. He describes how Iran and its allies employ a strategy of ambiguity and delayed retaliation, which creates a sense of fear within Israeli society. This strategy, Bolouri claims, is designed to keep Israel on edge, unsure of when or how Iran might strike back. The fear of an inevitable but undefined retaliatory strike can be more psychologically damaging than the strike itself. According to Bolouri, this approach makes Israelis live in constant fear of what might come next, which can erode their resolve and weaken their ability to respond effectively. The article mentions how Iran sends out conflicting messages—sometimes hinting at imminent retaliation and at other times sending more ambiguous signals.

Another critical point in Bolouri’s analysis is the strategic use of timing in psychological warfare. He suggests that the longer Iran delays its response to provocations like the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the more significant the eventual retaliation will appear. This delay also gives Iran time to carefully plan its response carefully, ensuring maximum physical and psychological impact.

The article discusses the pivotal role of media in psychological warfare. Bolouri notes that the media can influence public opinion domestically and internationally by shaping narratives supporting Iran’s strategic goals. He points out that Iran’s psychological operations include a deliberate effort to control the narrative around its conflict with Israel. For example, by portraying Iran as the victor in various confrontations, even without engaging in direct military action, the media can perceive strength as powerful as actual military might.

Bolouri warns that psychological warfare is a double-edged sword that can also target Iranian society. He mentions that Israel and its allies might attempt to undermine Iran’s social cohesion by exploiting internal divisions or economic hardships. To counter this, he calls for a unified media strategy that reinforces national unity and prepares the public for the inevitable challenges ahead.

Bolouri concludes by calling for a robust media response to any psychological operations conducted by Israel or its allies. He stresses the importance of being the “first narrator” in any conflict, meaning Iran must seize control of the narrative from the outset to ensure that its version of events dominates public discourse. This, he argues, is essential for maintaining the credibility of Iran’s claims and preventing the enemy from distorting the truth.

In summary, Bolouri’s article in “Kayhan” portrays psychological warfare as a critical battleground in the ongoing conflict with Israel. By manipulating perceptions, controlling narratives, and maintaining social cohesion, Iran seeks to weaken Israel’s resolve and bolster its strategic position without necessarily resorting to direct military confrontation.

​Iran Dossier Psychological Tactics or Survival Strategy: Is Iran’s Regime in Crisis Over Response to Israel? 

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